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Changelog

extr 1.1.0 (2026-03-14)

Changes in 1.1.0

  • Added method = "oear" to ext_di(), allowing extinction probability estimates and associated confidence intervals to be computed using an observation-error-and-autocovariance-robust (OEAR) plug-in variance estimate.
  • Implemented the OEAR variance estimator using HAC long-run variance estimation with AR(1) pre-whitening and a Bartlett kernel.
  • Added OEAR diagnostics (rho_tilde_pw and j) to the returned object and printed output.
  • Updated method-specific output: for method = "naive", output includes Variance and aic; for method = "oear", output includes Process variance (OEAR), reports aic as NA, and reports lower_cl_s and upper_cl_s using a chi-square-based pragmatic plug-in approximation.

extr 1.0.0 (2025-09-15)

CRAN release: 2025-09-21

Up to 0.9.0

  • Core extinction-risk estimator ext_di for density-independent (drifted Wiener) models.
  • Includes MLEs of growth rate and environmental variance from irregular time series.
  • Includes point estimate of extinction probability.
  • Includes confidence intervals for extinction probability (w-z method) with near-nominal coverage.
  • Includes optional QQ-plot diagnostic.

Changes in 1.0.0

  • Numerical stability and range:
    • Adaptive probability representation on G, log G, and log(1-G).
    • Uses complement form when G is near 0 or 1 to maintain numerical accuracy.
    • Log-scale representation extends safe range down to symbolic exp(-DBL_MAX).
    • Probabilities near 0 or 1 are displayed as 10^-* or 1-10^-*.
  • Printed output:
    • Printed precision is configurable via options("extr.digits").